Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 via Breathing, Speaking, Singing, Coughing, and Sneezing.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for indoor airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is accumulating. OBJECTIVES: We assessed of the risk of illness due to airborne SARS-CoV-2 particles from breathing, speaking, singing, coughing, and sneezing in indoor environments. METHODS: A risk assessment model, AirCoV2, for exposure to SARS-CoV-2 particles in aerosol droplets was developed. Previously published data on droplets expelled by breathing, speaking, singing, coughing, and sneezing by an infected person were used as inputs. Scenarios encompassed virus concentration, exposure time, and ventilation. Newly collected data of virus RNA copies in mucus from patients are presented. RESULTS: The expelled volume of aerosols was highest for a sneeze, followed by a cough, singing, speaking, and breathing. After 20 min of exposure, at 107 RNA copies/mL in mucus, all mean illness risks were largely estimated to be below 0.001, except for the "high" sneeze scenario. At virus concentrations above 108 RNA copies/mL, and after 2 h of exposure, in the high and "low" sneeze scenarios, the high cough scenario and the singing scenario, risks exceeded 0.01 and may become very high, whereas the low coughing scenario, the high and low speaking scenarios and the breathing scenario remained below 0.1. After 2 h of exposure, singing became the second highest risk scenario. One air exchange per hour reduced risk of illness by about a factor of 2. Six air exchanges per hour reduced risks of illness by a factor of 8-13 for the sneeze and cough scenarios and by a factor of 4-9 for the other scenarios. DISCUSSION: The large variation in the volume of expelled aerosols is discussed. The model calculations indicated that SARS-CoV-2 transmission via aerosols outside of the 1.5-m social distancing norm can occur. Virus concentrations in aerosols and/or the amount of expelled aerosol droplets need to be high for substantial transmission via this route. AirCoV2 is made available as interactive computational tool. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7886.

Test, trace, isolate: evidence for declining SARS-CoV-2 PCR sensitivity in a clinical cohort.

Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) on upper respiratory tract (URT) samples is the primary method to diagnose SARS-CoV-2 infections and guide public health measures, with a supportive role for serology. We reinforce previous findings on limited sensitivity of PCR testing, and solidify this fact by statistically utilizing a firm basis of multiple tests per individual. We integrate stratifications with respect to several patient characteristics such as severity of disease and time since onset of symptoms. Bayesian statistical modelling was used to retrospectively determine the sensitivity of RT-PCR using SARS-CoV-2 serology in 644 COVID-19-suspected patients with varying degrees of disease severity and duration. The sensitivity of RT-PCR ranged between 80% - 95%; increasing with disease severity, it decreased rapidly over time in mild COVID-19 cases. Negative URT RT-PCR results should be interpreted in the context of clinical characteristics, especially with regard to containment of viral transmission based on 'test, trace and isolate'. Keywords: SARS-CoV-2, RT-PCR, serology, sensitivity, public health.

Accurate serology for SARS-CoV-2 and common human coronaviruses using a multiplex approach.

Serology is a crucial part of the public health response to the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Here, we describe the development, validation and clinical evaluation of a protein micro-array as a quantitative multiplex immunoassay that can identify S and N-directed SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies with high specificity and sensitivity and distinguish them from all currently circulating human coronaviruses. The method specificity was 100% for SARS-CoV-2 S1 and 96% for N antigen based on extensive syndromic (n=230 cases) and population panel (n=94) testing that also confirmed the high prevalence of seasonal human coronaviruses. To assess its potential role for both SARS-CoV-2 patient diagnostics and population studies, we evaluated a large heterogeneous COVID-19 cohort (n=330) and found an overall sensitivity of 89% (≥ 21 days post onset symptoms (dps)), ranging from 86% to 96% depending on severity of disease. For a subset of these patients longitudinal samples were provided up to 56 dps. Mild cases showed absent or delayed, and lower SARS-CoV-2 antibody responses. Overall, we present the development and extensive clinical validation of a multiplex coronavirus serological assay for syndromic testing, to answer research questions regarding to antibody responses, to support SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics and to evaluate epidemiological developments efficiently and with high-throughput.